[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Oct 30 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Oct 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels. Region 2778 (S22W63, Eko/beta) underwent some area and spot decay while Region 2779 (S17W51, Cai/beta) exhibited slight areal growth. Region 2779 produced multiple C-class flares this period, the largest was a C1/Sf flare observed at 29/2016 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Additional C-class flare activity is likely, with a slight chance for M-class flare events, over 30 Oct-01 Nov.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period, with a peak flux of 15,796 pfu observed at 29/1525 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 30 Oct-01 Nov and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained slightly enhanced this period due to the waning influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total field strength reached 7 nT, Bz occasionally reached -5 nT and wind speed values decreased slowly throughout the period from around 475 km/s to end-of-period values near 425 km/s. Phi angle was highly variable throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to slowly decrease to background levels over 30-31 Oct following CH HSS influence. An additional solar wind enhancement is likely on 01 Nov due to the anticipated arrival from a 27 Oct CME.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active this period under waning CH HSS influence.

Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 30 Oct under waning CH HSS influence, and generally quiet conditions are expected to prevail on 31 Oct under a nominal solar wind regime. Quiet to active conditions are likely on 01 Nov due to the anticipated arrival of a CME from 27 Oct.

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