[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Nov 28 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Nov 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 2786 (S19E22, Fki/beta-gamma) produced a pair of C1/Sf flares observed at 27/1659 UTC and 28/0135 UTC. Slight penumbral decay was observed in the trailer portion of the region. A C1 x-ray event was also observed from just beyond the WSW limb at 28/0726 UTC. All other regions exhibited slight decay and were quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class flare (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) activity on 28-30 November due primarily to the flare potential of Region 2786.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels today with a peak flux of 2,310 pfu observed at 27/1410 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 28 Nov. A return to moderate conditions is expected on 29-30 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at mostly nominal levels over the period. Solar wind speeds meandered between about 405-475 km/s, total field ranged between 1-6 nT and the Bz component ranged between +6 to -5 nT. Phi angle was variable through about 27/2230 UTC, but then settled into a mostly positive orientation for the remainder of the period.

Forecast: Nominal solar wind conditions are expected on 28-30 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to a sustained Bz component.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 28-30 Nov.

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