[Propagation+Space Weather] The W1AW Weekly Propagation Report - 2021 Jan 02 03:39 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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The following is the weekly propagation bulletin from W1AW / ARRL (posting on 20210102 03:39 UTC):

QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 1 ARLP001 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA January 2, 2021 To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP001 ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA

Sunspot cycle 25 is progressing normally, and with the new year my outlook is optimistic. Solar minimum occurred only a bit more than a year ago (December 2019) and now we see very few days with no sunspots.

Average daily sunspot number over this past week was 27.1, and a week ago the average was just 10.3. Average daily solar flux rose from 82.8 to 86.4.

Predicted solar flux over the next 30 days is 81 and 80 on January 1 and 2, 79 on January 3 and 4, 78 on January 5 to 8, then jumping to 84 on January 9 to 14, then 85, 86 and 87 on January 15 to 17, 88 on January 18 to 28, 87 on January 29 and 86 on January 30. It then dips to 84 on February 1 to 10.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 1 and 2, 8 and 5 on January 3 and 4, 8 on January 5 to 7, 5 on January 8 to 17, 10 on January 18 to 20, 8 on January 21, 5 on January 22 to 24, 10 on January 25, and 5 on January 26 to 30.

Both the current sunspot groups (2794 and 2795) are about to slip across the sun's western horizon.

When I check https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ for any possible coming activity, I don't see anything obvious, but do not be surprised if new activity appears soon, perhaps before mid-January along with the predicted higher flux values.

>From OK1HH:

'Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 1 to 26, 2021

Geomagnetic field will be Quiet on: January 1, 3, 13 and 14 Quiet to unsettled on: January 2, 4, 8, 10, 12, 15 and 16, 21, 25 and 26 Quiet to active on: January 5 to 7, 9, 11, 17, 22 and 23 Unsettled to active: January 20, 24 Active to disturbed: January 18 and 19

Solar wind will intensify on: (January 1 to 3, 7 to 9, 19 and 20,) 21 and 22, (23, 25 and 26)

Remarks: - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement. - The predictability of changes is lower again, as there are ambiguous and changing indications.

Wishing Happy New Year, positive thinking and negative tests.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH from Czech Propagation Interested Group compiling these geomagnetic activity weekly forecasts since January 1978'.

Ted Leaf, K6HI of Kona, Hawaii sent this, another optimistic report on new cycle 25:

https://bit.ly/2XdqaUd

More on the NCAR prediction and the solar clock:

https://bit.ly/2MkHVyt

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for December 24 through 30, 2020 were 25, 30, 31, 26, 26, 26, and 26, with a mean of 27.1. 10.7 cm flux was 87.4, 87.7, 87.9, 87.8, 87.2, 84.2, and 82.8, with a mean of 86.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 5, 4, 6, 7, 7, and 9, with a mean of 6.9. Middle latitude A index was 7, 4, 3, 4, 6, 5, and 6, with a mean of 5.

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