[Propagation+Space Weather] The W1AW Weekly Propagation Report - 2021 Jan 08 21:54 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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The following is the weekly propagation bulletin from W1AW / ARRL (posting on 20210108 21:54 UTC):

QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 2 ARLP002 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA January 8, 2021 To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP002 ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA

Sunspots disappeared after January 2, so the average daily sunspot number dropped from 27.1 last week to 10 for this reporting week, December 31 through January 6.

As a result, average daily solar flux declined as well, from 86.4 to 78.6.

Geomagnetic indicators remain quiet, with planetary A index changing from 6.9 to 5.1, and middle latitude numbers from 5 to 4.

This decline was unexpected, and of course we would rather see more and more sunspots as Solar Cycle 25 progresses, but this is normal. We expect much variability in any sunspot cycle.

Predicted solar flux for the next 30 days looks depressed, far different from the high 80s we saw around Christmas. Solar flux is expected at 74 on January 8-15, 80 on January 16, 82 on January 17-27, 80 on January 28-31, and 78 on February 1-6. Flux values may rise to 82 around mid-February.

Planetary A index is predicted at 5 on January 8-9, 8 on January 10-11, 5 on January 12-16, 10 on January 17-20, 5 on January 21-24, 8 on January 25-26, 5 on January 27-31, then 10, 10 and 8 on February 1-3, and 5 on February 4-5. A index may rise to 10 by mid-February.

This prediction, prepared by the US Air Force, is updated daily, usually after 2120 UTC, and can be found at, ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/ .

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 8 to February 3, 2021 from OK1HH.

'Geomagnetic field will be,

quiet on: January 10, 12-14, 22, 30-31

quiet to unsettled on: January 11, 23, 27-29, February 1

quiet to active on: January 8, 15-16, 21, 24-26

unsettled to active: January 9, 17, 19-20, February 3

active to disturbed: January 18, February 2

Solar wind will intensify on: (January 8-9, 15-17, 19-20,) 21 (- 22, (23, 25-26,) February 2-3.

'Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement. The predictability of changes is lower again, as there are ambiguous and changing indications. Including rapidly emerging and disappearing narrow bands of solar coronal holes.'

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.

For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for December 31, 2020 through January 6, 2021 were 25, 23, 22, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 10. 10.7 cm flux was 81.2, 80.4, 81.5, 80.4, 77.6, 75.1, and 74.1, with a mean of 78.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 4, 2, 2, 3, 11, and 11, with a mean of 5.1. Middle latitude A index was 2, 3, 1, 1, 3, 9, and 9, with a mean of 4.

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