[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jan 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jan 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2797 (S18E03, Hax/alpha) was stable and inactive. Region 2798 (S16E12, Axx/alpha) and new Region 2799 (N21W36, Axx/alpha) exhibited decay and were inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels, with a slight chance for C-class activity, on 23-25 Jan.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels for 23-25 Jan.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Total magnetic field strength briefly peaked at 6 nT, but was generally at or below 5 nT. The Bz component varied between +/-4 nT while wind speed was between 300-350 km/s. Phi was mostly positive.

Forecast: A nominal solar wind environment is expected for 23 Jan through late on 24 Jan. Enhancements in the field are expected late on the 24th through the 25th as an isolated, negative polarity CH moves into a geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Mostly quiet conditions are expected through late on 24 Jan. Quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated for late 24 Jan through 25 Jan due to CH HSS influence.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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