[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jan 27 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jan 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2797 (S18W49, Axx/alpha) was stable and quiet. New spot emergence was observed near N19W10, however the small pores appear fleeting. Other activity included an approximate 7 degree filament eruption observed at 27/0515 UTC centered near S34E23. A possible related CME was observed in STEREO A COR2 imagery beginning at 27/0724 UTC. Further analysis will be conducted as imagery becomes available, but the initial trajectory appears south of the ecliptic.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected on 27-29 Jan.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: CH HSS influences are likely to result in moderate to high levels of the greater than 2 MeV electron flux on 27-29 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the continued influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 490 km/s to near 550 km/s. Total field was mostly steady around 3-5 nT while the Bz component was between +/-4 nT. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in a negative solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced through early on 28 Jan as HSS effects persist. A return to nominal levels is expected by 29 Jan.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled in response to CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 27 Jan as HSS effects persist. A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected on 28-29 Jan.

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