[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Feb 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Feb 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 05-07 Feb.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected waning influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed began near 475 km/s and ended the period near 410 km/s. Total field ranged from 3-7 nT while the Bz component dropped as low as -6 nT. Phi angle was predominately negative.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to continue its decreasing trend for the remainder of 05 Feb as coronal hole influence wanes. A return to ambient conditions is expected on 06 Feb. Late on 06 Feb and extending into 07 Feb, a possible solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) in advance of a positive polarity CH HSS, may cause enhanced solar wind parameters.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels in response to waning CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the remainder of 05 Feb through the majority of 06 Feb. Late on 06 Feb, a possible SSBC in advance of the aforementioned CH HSS may cause unsettled conditions. Quiet to active conditions are likely on 07 Feb, associated with CH HSS arrival.

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