[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Feb 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Feb 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2803 (N21E45, Bxo/beta) developed into a weak bipolar region, but remained quiet.

A filament eruption occurred on the SE portion of the disk with an associated partial-halo CME, first visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 20/1200 UTC. Analysis of any Earth-directed component is ongoing.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels on 21-23 Feb.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels at 21/0535 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 21-23 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were reflective of negative polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speeds were elevated throughout the period between 525-600 km/s with a peak of 617 km/s at 20/1752 UTC. Total field generally ranged from 5-10 nT while the Bz component remained mostly southward to -5 to -7 nT. Phi was in a predominately negative solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind speeds are expected to remain enhanced through 23 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels due to CH HSS influences.

Forecast Unsettled to active levels are expected on 21 Feb and quiet to unsettled levels on 22-23 Feb as CH HSS influences wane.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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