[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Feb 26 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Feb 26 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2804 (N18W52, Dsi/beta) began to exhibit decay in its intermediate and trailer spots, but continued to produce multiple low level B-class flares. Although Region 2805 (S22W47) decayed to an area of enhanced plage during the period, it did manage to produce a B9/Sf flare at 26/0725 UTC.

Coronal dimming was observed in SDO/AIA193 imagery at approximately 26/0715 UTC, following the B9/Sf flare near Region 2805. Initial coronagraph imagery is just beginning to fill in, and an in-depth analysis will be conducted once enough data is obtained to determine if there was an associated CME.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a chance for C-class flares on 26-28 Feb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with a chance for high levels on 26-28 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters experienced weak enhancements under diminishing CME effects. Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 500 km/s to near 400 km/s, total field averaged near 4 nT, and the Bz component was between +/-5 nT. Phi angle was in a mostly negative orientation, with isolated oscillations into the positive sector.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are expected to continue to diminish on 26 Feb. A return to nominal levels is expected on 27-28 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to persistent, yet waning CME effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet, with a chance for isolated unsettled periods, due to prolonged southward Bz on 26-28 Feb.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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