[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Feb 28 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Feb 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2804 (N18W80, Dso/beta) produced a C2/sf at 27/1800 UTC and a C3/sf at 28/0645 UTC. Associated with the first C-flare was a slow-moving, narrow CME signature which does not appear to have an Earth-directed component.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a chance for C-class flares on 28 Feb and 01 Mar. Very low levels are expected for 02 Mar in the absence of spot groups after the departure of 2804 around the West limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high levels on 28 Feb and decrease to moderate levels or lower initially with the onset of CH HSS activity on 01-02 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, were at nominal levels. Total magnetic field strength was below 5nT. Solar wind speeds were between 358 and 400 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are expected to be at near nominal levels on 28 Feb. The onset of influence from a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to cause enhancements in total magnetic field strength and solar wind speeds on 01-02 Mar.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet, with a chance for isolated unsettled periods, due to prolonged southward Bz on 28 Feb. CH HSS activity is anticipated for 01-02 Mar and expected to produce unsettled to active conditions on 01 Mar. 02 March is expected to be mostly unsettled to active with a minor storm (G1) likely late in the UT day.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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