[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Mar 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Mar 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2810 (N18, L=306) decayed to plage while new Region 2811 (N21E65, Bxo/beta) rotated into view and was numbered this period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available data.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class flare activity, over 21-23 Mar.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 21-23 Mar and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected to continued influence of a negative polarity CH HSS this period. Solar wind speeds slowly decreased from around 600-650 km/s to around 575 km/s throughout the period. Total field strength was steady near 5 nT through most of the period and Bz reached -5 nT periodically between 20/1500-21/0300 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over 21-23 Mar due to continued CH HSS influence (on 21-23 Mar) and the anticipated arrival of the 20 Mar CME (on 23 Mar).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels due to CIR and negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast: Periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 21-22 Mar due to continued CH HSS influence. Active conditions are expected on 23 Mar due to waning CH HSS influence and the anticipated arrival of the 20 Mar CME.

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