[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Mar 26 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Mar 26 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2811 (N20W00, Bxo/beta) was stable and quiet. Region 2812 (N21E22, Hax/alpha) was responsible for a B8/Sf flare at 25/1519 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for a C-class flare, on 26-28 Mar.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,215 pfu observed at 25/1435 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 26 Mar and return to moderate levels on 27-28 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a slightly enhanced solar wind environment. Total field strength ranged from 2-7 nT while the Bz component fluctuated between +/-6 nT. Bz was mostly north through about 25/2200 UTC when a steady southward trend was observed through the end of the period. Wind speeds ranged from about 375-490 km/s while the Phi angle was highly variable throughout the period.

Forecast: Slightly enhanced solar wind parameters are expected for the remainder of 26 Mar with a gradual return to background levels on 27 Mar. Late on 27 Mar to early on 28 Mar, solar wind parameters are expected to, once again, become enhanced as a CIR is expected to impact Earth ahead of another negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated active interval early on 26 Mar, all attributed to decreasing negative polarity CH HSS activity, coupled with possible CME effects.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the remainder of 26 Mar becoming mostly quiet by 27 Mar. Late on 27 Mar to early on 28 Mar, a CIR, in advance of another negative polarity CH HSS, is expected to impact Earth. Conditions are expected to increase to unsettled to active levels, with G1 (Minor) storm levels likely beginning on 28 Mar.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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