[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Mar 31 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Mar 31 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. There were no sunspots although Region 2811 (N20W62), which is an area of enhanced plage, produced a B7 flare at 30/2005 UTC. Region 2812 (N23W36), also an area of plage, remained inactive.

An apparent filament eruption occurred near N50W02 at approximately 30/1440 UTC. A very faint CME can be teased out in coronagraph imagery, but it is not thought to be Earth-directed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 31 Mar-02 Apr.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 31 Mar-02 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind speeds increased from around 310 km/s to just over 400 km/s, suggesting the arrival of what was anticipated to be a weak, negative polarity CH HSS. Total field peaked at 8 nT and the Bz component reached a maximum southward deviation of -7 nT. Phi was negative.

Forecast: Minor enhancements are expected to continue through the rest of the day (31 Mar) with weak CH HSS influences. A return to background conditions is expected for 01-02 Apr.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was briefly unsettled with the arrival of a weak, negative polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: Isolated unsettled levels are likely throughout the day (31 Mar), with a chance for isolated active periods, due to CH HSS activity. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail 01-02 Apr.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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