[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Apr 08 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Apr 08 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low under a spotless solar disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 08-10 Apr.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels with a chance for high levels due to CH HSS effects on 08-10 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were enhanced under a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed increased from 370 km/s to a maximum of 524 km/s at 07/1759 UTC and decreased to near 480 km/s by 08/0900 UTC. Total field reached 14 nT while the Bz component was between +10/-13 nT just after 07/1200 UTC. By 07/2140 UTC, total field had decreased to 5 nT or below. Phi angle was mostly positive (away).

Forecast: Solar wind speed is anticipated to slowly decrease on 08-09 Apr as HSS conditions diminish. A tenuous, isolated negative polarity CH HSS is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 10 Apr, potentially causing another enhancement of solar wind parameters.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions due to CIR/CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet with isolated unsettled levels possible on 08-09 Apr as HSS effects slowly diminish. Quiet to unsettled conditions, with possible active periods, are expected on 10 Apr as a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective.

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