[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Apr 24 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Apr 24 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Old Region 2817 (N18, L=336) was responsible for multiple C1 flares. Region 2816 (S24W37, Cro/beta) was responsible for a few B-class flares and showed some signs of decay. Region 2818 (S16E17, Hsx/alpha) was stable and quiet. New Regions 2819 (N25W28, Bxo/beta) and 2820 (S21E05, Dro/beta) were numbered this period. Region 2820 produced B-class activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed over the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low, with a slight chance for M-class (R1-Minor) flares on 24-26 Apr.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 19,294 pfu observed at 23/1605 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels through 26 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the arrival of a CIR/CH HSS. Total field increased to a maximum of 11 nT at 23/2111 UTC while the Bz component ranged from +7/-10 nT. Through the period, solar wind speed increased from about 375 km/s to about 510 km/s. Phi angle was in a predominately negative (towards) solar sector.

Forecast: Negative polarity CH HSS influence is expected through 24 Nov. Solar wind speeds are expected to be in the 450-550 km/s range. By mid to late on 25 Apr, the 22 Apr CME is expected to causing another enhancement in solar wind parameters. CME effects are expected to persist into 26 Apr.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming due to onset of CIR/CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 24 Apr due to continued CH HSS effects. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels are expected around mid to late on 25 Apr due to the arrival of the 22 Apr CME. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 26 Apr as CME effects persist.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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