[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Apr 30 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Apr 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Slight decay was observed in Regions 2820 (S22W64, Bxo/beta) and 2821 (S21W82, Hsx/alpha). A CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery off the east limb beginning at 29/2001 UTC. This was the result of a filament eruption beginning at 29/1613 UTC centered near N55E65. The CME is unlikely to be geoeffective based on its location; however, more analysis will be conducted as imagery becomes available.

Forecast: Solar activity is anticipated to be at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares on 30 Apr - 02 May.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to at normal to moderate levels with a chance for high levels on 30 Apr - 02 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were mostly at nominal levels until 29/1844 UTC when a weak shock was observed in solar wind data, possibly from a weak glancing blow from the 25 Apr CME. Total field increased from 5 nT to 9 nT while solar wind speed increased from 329 to 354 km/s. Wind speeds ended the period near 300 km/s. Phi angle switched from a negative to a positive sector at 29/1320 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be slightly enhanced under CME influence on 30 Apr. Additionally, some material from the filament eruption that occurred on 26 Apr may pass close enough to Earth to elevate solar wind parameters late on 30 Apr into 01 May. Early on 02 May, a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to move into geoeffective position. Solar wind speeds in the 450-550 km/s range is likely.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 30 Apr - 01 May with a chance for active periods due to weak CME influences. Unsettled to active levels with a chance of G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected on 02 with the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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