[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 May 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 May 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2822 (N16W27, Cao/beta) continued to decay and Region 2823 (S23W18, Axx/alpha) has almost become plage. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected, with a slight chance for C-class flares, on 15-17 May.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels over 15-17 May.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected a slight enhancement in the latter half of the reporting period. Total magnetic field strength reached a brief peak of 10 nT. Bz reached -6 nT between 15/0530-0600 UTC. Solar wind speeds gradually climbed to ~370 to ~460 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly negative.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to trend towards background levels over 15 May and persist through 16 May. Influence from a negative polarity CH HSS is likely on over 17 May.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet levels, with isolated unsettled conditions, on 15 May. Quiet conditions are expected over 16 May. On 17 May, increase to unsettled levels are likely, with isolated active periods, in response to coronal hole influence.

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