[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 May 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 May 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels this period due to C-class flare activity from Region 2824 (N22E18, Hsx/alpha). Region 2824 produced (1) a C4 flare at 21/1928 UTC, (2) a C6/1n flare at 22/0256 UTC with Type-II radio emissions, (3) a C6/1n flare at 0617 UTC with Type-II radio emissions, (4) a C1/Sf flare at 0652 UTC, (5) and a long-duration C1 flare at 22/0844 UTC.

Despite the increase in the frequency of activity from Region 2824, the region is not particularly complex and remained largely unchanged from the previous reporting period.

Multiple CME signatures associated with the flare activity from Region 2824 were observed in coronagraph imagery. Initial estimates suggest these CMEs are directed east of the Sun-Earth line, however, additional data is needed in order to complete a thorough analysis.

A CME associated with far-sided activity beyond the west limb, in the vicinity of old Region 2822 (N17, L=335), was observed in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at around 21/1600 UTC. This event is not Earth-directed.

Forecast: Additional C-class flare activity is likely, with a slight chance for isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, from Region 2824 over 22-24 May.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 22-24 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected diminishing CH HSS influence and the return of a nominal solar wind regime this period. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased from initial values near 550 km/s to end-of-period values around 450 km/s. Total field strength values remained below 5 nT and Bz varied between +/-3 nT. The phi angle was predominately negative throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to persist near background levels over 22-24 May under a nominal solar wind regime.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet over 22-24 May.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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