[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jun 18 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jun 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2833 (N22E04, Hsx/alpha) was unchanged and inactive during the period. A new region emerged near N20W60, but was also inactive and remains unnumbered at this time. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 18-20 Jun.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,180 pfu at 18/0000 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels 18-19 Jun in response to CH HSS influence, and then return to mostly moderate levels by 20 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels in the absence of significant active regions.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a persistent, yet waning CH HSS regime. Wind speeds slightly decreased from near 550 km/s to near 500 km/s by periods end. Total field averaged 3-5 nT and the Bz component was +/- 4 nT. Phi was predominantly in a negative solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to begin a return to a slower wind regime on 18-20 Jun as the coronal hole moves out of a geo-effective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 18 Jun. Mostly quiet conditions are expected prevail 19-20 Jun.

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