[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Aug 04 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Aug 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low with Region 2850 (S32W48, Cso/beta) as the only sunspots present on the visible disk. The region was largely inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected to continue, with a slight chance of C-class flares 04-06 Aug.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.

Forecast: Normal to moderate levels of the greater than 2 MeV electron flux are expected to continue 04-06 Aug, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were ambient quiet background. Total IMF strength decreased throughout the period and ended at less than 5 nT. Solar wind speed decreased slightly from near 350 km/s to end the period near 300 km/s. The phi angle varied, but was mostly directed away from the Sun in a positive sector.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are anticipated to be reflective of more ambient, background-like conditions on 04 Aug. On 05 Aug, a CIR ahead of an isolated, positive polarity CH HSS, is possible. CH HSS onset are likely to cause additional enhancements, and increases in solar wind speed on 06 Aug.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active early in response to the enhanced and disturbed IMF. Geomagnetic responses were primarily quiet after 03/1200 UTC.

Forecast: Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 04 Aug. Increasing responses to unsettled conditions on 05 Aug and unsettled to active levels on 06 Aug are likely due to CIR and CH HSS effects.

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