[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2021 Aug 09 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2021 Aug 09 0352 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 - 08 August 2021

Solar activity was at very low levels. An isolated C1 flare peaked at 09/0004 UTC just after the reporting period from new Region 2853 (N23, L=192, class/area Axx/010 on 08 Aug). The single spot just appeared late on 08 Aug but was preceded by an area of active plage which rotated onto the visible disk on 06 Aug. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 04-05 Aug with a peak flux of 1,570 pfu observed at 05/1725 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming. An enhancement in the IMF field began at 02/0900 UTC, likely from a glancing blow from the 28 Jul CME. Total field reached a peak of 13 nT at 02/1810 UTC, while the Bz component was mostly negative for 1.5 days reaching -13 nT briefly 02/1815 UTC. Solar wind speed at this time was between 300-400 km/s. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to G1 storm levels on 02 Aug and quiet to active levels on 03 Aug. Quiet conditions were observed on 04 Aug through late on 06 Aug. By the middle of 06 Aug, a likely CIR preceding a weak positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) was observed causing total field to increase to a maximum of 13 nT at 07/0620 UTC along with a prolonged period of southward Bz to -9 nT. Solar wind speed briefly increased to near 475 km/s on 07 Aug before declining to below 400 km/s by midday on 08 Aug. The geomagnetic field reached unsettled periods late on 06 Aug through 07 Aug followed by quiet levels on 08 Aug.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 09 August - 04 September 2021

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for further C-class flares through 19 Aug if Region 2853 continues to develop and show activity.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on 09-10 Aug, 16-18 Aug, 23-25 Aug, and 02-04 Sep and reach active levels on 24 Aug and 03 Sep due to CH HSS activity.

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