[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Aug 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Aug 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Slight decay was observed in Region 2858 (N13W21, Bxo/beta). Two active regions appear to be just beginning to rotate onto the East limb near N20 and S28. No spots are currently visible, however the GOES X-ray background has increased over the past 24 hours. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flaring on 20-22 Aug.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 20-22 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speed ranging from 303-366 km/s. Total field ranged from 3-7 nT while the Bz component was between +4/-7 nT. Phi angle was mostly oriented in a positive solar sector.

Forecast: A background solar wind regime is expected on 20 Aug. Negative polarity CH HSS influence is possible over 21-22 Aug but is expected to be weak.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Mostly quiet field conditions are expected over 20 Aug. An increase to unsettled levels are possible over 21-22 Aug due to anticipated influence from a small, negative polarity CH HSS.

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