[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Aug 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Aug 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels as Region 2859 (N20E66, Cao/beta) produced two C1/Sf flares at 22/0052, 22/0414, and 22/1020 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a continued chance for C-class flares on 22-24 Aug.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 22-24 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speed ranging from 305-352 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-5 nT while the Bz component was between +/-3 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive until 22/0543 UTC when it became variable.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are likely to remain near background levels but may be weakly influenced by a negative polarity CH HSS on 23 Aug. By late on 24 Aug, a positive polarity, extension of the northern crown polar hole is expected to become geoeffective.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Geomagnetic field conditions may increase to isolated unsettled levels on 23 Aug in response to weak influence from a small, negative polarity coronal hole. Unsettled to active levels are likely late on 24 Aug due to the anticipated onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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