[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Aug 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Aug 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2859 (N19E53, Cao/beta) was relatively stable managing only a few B-class flares over the period.

Other activity included an approximate 40 degree eruptive filament centered near N52E15 between 22/1607-23/0143 UTC in SDO/AIA 304 imagery. An associated CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 23/0648 UTC off the northern limb. We are currently waiting on further imagery to determine if there is an Earth-directed component.

The DSF near S71E14 that began erupting around 22/0300 UTC is still being evaluated, but is unlikely to have an Earth-directed component. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a continued chance for C-class flares on 23-25 Aug.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 23-25 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speed ranged from 290-319 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-5 nT while the Bz component was between +5/-3 nT. Phi angle was variable.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at background levels on 23 Aug. A SSBC is possible on 24 Aug. 25 Aug is likely to observe the onset of influence from the positive polarity coronal hole extension of the northern crown.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 23 Aug. Unsettled levels are likely late on 24 Aug due to an anticipated SSBC. Activity is expected to increase to active levels on 25 Aug due to the onset of influence from an extension of the northern crown coronal hole.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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