[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Aug 28 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Aug 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was moderate. Region 2860 (S28W03, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced an M4/1n flare at 28/0611 UTC, with associated Type II and Type IV radio sweeps. Region 2860 also produced a C7/Sn flare at 28/0505, with an associated Type II radio sweep. Region 2860 showed signs of penumbral development in its intermediate spots. Region 2862 (S28W74, Bxo/beta) produced C-class flare activity early in the period as it rotated closer to the west limb. Regions 2859 (N17W13, Cso/beta) and 2861 (N15E32, Axx/alpha) were stable and absent of significant flare activity. Due to the source regions location and the radio signatures from the M4 flare, there is a strong possibility of an Earth-directed transient. Forecasters are awaiting coronagraph imagery to further assess any potential Earth-directed CMEs.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, throughout the forecast period (28-30 Aug) due to the recent activity from Region 2860.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 4,320 pfu at 28/1145 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels over 28-30 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment reflected enhanced conditions due to influence from the 23 Aug CME. Wind speed ranged between 350-450 km/s. Total field peaked at 16 nT. Bz was predominantly negative, dropping to a period low of -15 nT. Phi was positive after 27/1830 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over 28-30 Aug due to the waning effects of the 23 Aug CME followed by the anticipated arrival of the 26 Aug CME late on 29 Aug through midday on 30 Aug.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels due to the passage of the 23 Aug CME.

Forecast: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are expected on 28 Aug due to waning effects of the 23 Aug CME. Additional G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm periods are likely over 29-30 Aug due to the anticipated arrival of the 26 Aug CME.

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