[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Aug 30 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Aug 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2860 (S29W30, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced the largest event of the period, a C2/Sf flare at 29/1730 UTC. Region 2860 produced additional C-class events and showed decay in its trailer and consolidation in its intermediate and leader spots. Region 2859 (N18W41, Axx/alpha) was stable and inactive. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to reach low levels, with a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, over 30 Aug-01 Sep.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 11,700 pfu observed at 29/1730 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels over 30 Aug-01 Sep.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at background levels until around 29/2000 UTC, when a slight enhancement commenced. After 29/2000 UTC, solar wind speeds increased to approximately 425 km/s and total field increased to around 11 nT. Bz dropped as low as -6 nT. Phi was variable.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced on 30 Aug due to the anticipated passage of the 26 Aug CME. Slightly disturbed conditions are expected on 31 Aug. Solar wind parameters are expected to once again become enhanced on 01 Sep due to the anticipated arrival of the 28 Aug CME.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 30 Aug due to the anticipated arrival of the 26 Aug CME. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 31 Aug. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 01 Sep due to the anticipated arrival of the 28 Aug CME.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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