[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Sep 02 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Sep 02 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2860 (S27W70, Dai/beta) produced a couple of low level C-class flares. Region 2859 (N18, L=011) decayed to plage. New Region 2863 (S16E35, Cao/beta) produced multiple B-class flares during the period. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for low levels on 02-04 Sep.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to fluctuate between moderate and high levels on 02-04 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected ambient background conditions.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced late on 02 Sep due to the anticipated arrival of the 28 Aug CME combined with a 2nd 28 Aug CME from a filament that disappeared from near central meridian midday. Elevated solar wind conditions are forecast for 03 Sep due to waning CME activity combined with a recurrent positive polarity coronal hole. A return to ambient background conditions is forecast for 04 Sep.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels are possible on 02 Sep due to the anticipated arrival of the 28 Aug CMEs. Active conditions are forecast for 03 Sep due to waning CME activity. A return to quiet activity is forecast for 04 Sep.

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