[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Sep 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Sep 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and the visible disk was spotless. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low 16-18 Sep.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 16-18 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow regime. Total IMF strength averaged near 4 nT and the Bz component underwent only weak deviations. Solar wind speed decreased from near 400 km/s to ~315 km/s and the phi angle was predominantly positive, but did undergo some deviations into a negative sector.

Forecast: Mostly background conditions are expected the remainder of 16 Sep. On 17 Sep, moderate enhancements in the solar wind parameters are possible with an anticipated glancing blow from the 13 Sep CME, combined with the likely onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Enhanced conditions should persist into 18 Sep as CME/CH HSS effects persist.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Mostly quiet conditions are expected the remainder of 16 Sep. By 17 Sep, the combined effects from a negative polarity CH HSS and the possible arrival of the 13 Sep CME could result in unsettled to active conditions, with a chance for isolated G1 (minor) levels.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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