[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Oct 02 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Oct 02 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Both Regions 2877 (S20W71, Dso/beta) and Region 2880 (N32E11, Esi/beta) exhibited little change over the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at C-class levels, with a slight chance of M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate), on 02-04 Oct.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux levels are expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 02-04 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters begin the period at elevated levels under CME influence. Solar wind speeds averaged about 525 km/s through about 01/1800 UTC when speeds began a slow decline to end-of-period values near 475 km/s. Total field reached 13 nT at about 01/2100 UTC, but declined to 6 nT by periods end. The Bz component was mostly northward to +10 nT, but had some southward excursions to -7 nT towards the end of the period. The phi angle was in a mostly negative orientation through about 01/1845 UTC when it then rotated to a predominately positive orientation for the remainder of the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to taper off to more nominal levels late on 02 Oct into 03 Oct as CME influence subsides. Nominal conditions are expected on 04 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to isolated active levels due to CME influence.

Forecast: By late on 02 Oct, CME effects are anticipated to taper off, resulting in mostly quiet to isolated active levels. A return to mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected by 03-04 Oct.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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