[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Oct 12 1155 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Oct 12 1155 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low during the period. Region 2882 (N17W35, Cho/beta) indicated some penumbral decay in the NW periphery spots. The region produced the largest event of the period; a B9/Sf observed at 12/0146 UTC. Region 2883 (S26W79, Axx/alpha) produced a few B-class events and remained unchanged. Region 2884 (S20, L=170) decayed to plage. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts) 12-14 Oct, due primarily to the flare potential from Region 2882.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 12-14 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind conditions were indicative of mildly enhanced and disturbed conditions through 12/0147 UTC, likely due to HCS proximity and weak CH HSS effects. Total field strength (Bt) averaged 5-6 nT, the Bz component varied between +2 to -5 nT and wind speeds meandered between about 360-405 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly oriented in a negative sector through 11/2000 UTC when it became predominantly positive.

After 12/0147 UTC, solar wind parameters became disturbed as the forecasted 09 Oct CME arrived. Bt increased to 16 nT, the Bz component varied between +12 to -16 nT, density reached a maximum value of 39 pp/cm and solar wind speed increased to a maximum of 520 km/s. Phi was variable during this period.

Forecast: The wind field is expected to remain enhanced for the remainder of 12 Oct through 13 Oct under CME influence. A gradual return to less enhanced conditions is expected on 14 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels through 11 Oct. By early on 12 Oct, G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm conditions were recorded due to effects from the 09 Oct CME. A sudden impulse of 33 gamma was observed at 12/0230 UTC at the WNG geomagnetic station.

Forecast: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm conditions are likely to persist for the remainder of 12 Oct in response to CME effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods, are likely on 13 Oct as the solar wind state remains mildly disturbed in weakening response to waning CME effects. Conditions on 14 Oct are expected to be at primarily quiet levels.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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