[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Oct 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Oct 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low with a single sunspot group present on the visible disk. Region 2882 (N17W50, Cho/beta-gamma)was largely inactive. CME analysis from a B7 flare at 12/0216 UTC suggests a near miss just west of the Earth. No new CMEs were observed with available imagery.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected to continue, with a chance for C-class flares and slight chance for M-class (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts) 13-15 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels, with a chance for high levels due to CME effects 13-15 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind conditions were indicative of waning CME influence. Total IMF strength recovered to near 5nT. The Bz component was near -1nT. Solar wind speed varied between 460 km/s and 430 km/s later in the period. The phi angle varied between sectors.

Forecast: The solar wind field is expected to recover from the CME passage on 13 Oct. Ambient conditions are anticipated on 14 Oct. Minor CH HSS influences on 15 Oct may cause slight enhancements and in the IMF and a modest elevation in solar wind speed.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from active to quiet conditions as CME related activity waned.

Forecast: Waning influences of the passing CME are expected to result in unsettled to active conditions on 13 Oct. Primarily quiet conditions are expected on 14 Oct. Weak CH HSS influences on 15 Oct may cause isolated unsettled levels.

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