[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2021 Oct 18 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2021 Oct 18 0131 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 - 17 October 2021

Solar activity was very low with B-class flare activity on 11-12, and 15-17 Oct. Low levels of solar activity were observed on 13-14 Oct due to C-class flare activity. Region 2885 (N15, L=171, class/area=Cro/20 on 13 Oct) produced three C-class flares this period: a C1/Sf flare at 13/2204 UTC, a C2 flare at 14/0134 UTC, and a C1flare at 14/0304 UTC.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was normal to moderate throughout the period.

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 12 Oct due to the passage of a CME from 09 Oct. Quiet to active conditions were observed on 17 Oct, also due to the passage of a transient feature. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed on 11, 13, and16 Oct, while quiet conditions were observed throughout the remainder of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 18 October - 13 November 2021

Solar activity is expected to be very low to low throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 26-28 Oct. Normal to moderate flux levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 18-19 Oct, and 06 Nov due to the influence of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be mostly quiet or quiet to unsettled.

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