[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Oct 26 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Oct 26 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels as an M1 (Minor) flare occurred at 26/0247 UTC from a region just beyond the eastern limb. This region continues to produce upper C-level flares and multiple B-class flares.

Five active regions remained on the visible disk. Region 2886 (S20W35, Hsx-alpha) was quiet and stable. Region 2887 (S26E22, Dki-beta-gamma) continued to lose some of its leader spots, but remained mostly unchanged. Region 2888 (S13E45, Axx-alpha) was inactive. Region 2889 (S25E49, Bxo-beta) and Region 2890 (S19W21, Cro-beta) exhibited slight growth during the period and were responsible for a few C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity will likely be at low levels with a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts 26-28 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 26-28 Oct and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued at mostly background levels. Total field returned to under 5 nT after reaching a peak of 8 nT during the period. The Bz component was -5 to 6 nT, and wind speeds peaked near 375 km/s late in the period. Particle density did see a brief increase from ambient-like levels to a peak of 27 particles per cubic cm at the beginning of the period, but quickly returned to normal levels. Phi was predominantly in a negative solar sector with a few oscillations into the positive solar sector late.

Forecast:

Background solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 26 Oct. A slight enhancement in solar wind parameters is expected on 27-28 Oct as weak interactions with various CH HSSs are possible.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Conditions are expected to be mostly quiet, with a chance for an isolated unsettled period on 26 Oct. Additional unsettled periods are expected, with isolated active periods possible, on 27-28 Oct due to weak interaction with various CH HSSs.

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