[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Oct 29 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Oct 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached high levels. Region 2887 (S27W15, Dhi/beta-gamma) produced an X1/2n flare (R3-Strong Radio Blackout) at 28/1535 UTC. Associated with the event were Type II (1457 km/s) and Type IV radio emissions at 28/1529 UTC and 28/1532 UTC, respectively. GOES-16 SUVI 195 imagery observed a large EIT wave at flare maximum along with ejecta to the SSE observed on GOES-16 SUVI 304 imagery. A fast, asymmetric Halo CME was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 28/1548 UTC. Analysis and model guidance suggests CME impact at Earth around 1600 UTC on 30 Oct.

Region 2887 exhibited minor decay throughout the period, especially in the trailer spot area of the region. Region 2891 (N18E49, Dai/beta) exhibited minor growth throughout the period, and produced an M1/1n flare (R1-Minor Radio Blackout) at 28/0242 UTC.

Regions 2886 (S19W74, Hsx/alpha) and 2889 (S23E10, Bxo/beta) were steady and quiet, while Regions 2888 (S12, L=254) and 2890 (S18, L=317) decayed to plage this period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with M-class flare activity (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts) likely and a chance for isolated X-class flares (R3-Strong Radio Blackouts), over 29-31 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S1 (Minor Solar Radiation Storm) levels at 28/1740 UTC. At the time of this report, the current 10 MeV proton flux levels remain above event threshold at about 20 pfu. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux reached event levels at 28/1635 UTC, with a peak of 7.3 pfu at 28/1815 UTC. The current 100 MeV flux levels were at about 1-2 pfu at the time of this writing. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

Forecast: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at S1 (Minor Solar Radiation Storm) levels on 29-30 Oct, with a chance for an additional enhancement above the S1 threshold on 31 Oct. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux is expected to remain above event levels (1 pfu) on 29 Oct and decay to below event thresholds on 30-31 Oct. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 29-31 Oct.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to reflect a background solar wind regime. Total field averaged near 3 nT, the Bz component was near neutral or northward, and wind speeds hovered near 300 km/s. Solar wind density was slightly enhanced this period, briefly rising above 15 ppcm around mid-period. Phi was predominantly in a negative solar sector throughout the period.

Forecast: A background solar wind regime is expected to continue through 29 Oct. On 30 Oct, enhancements in solar wind parameters are expected due to the predicted arrival of the 28 Oct CME (X1 flare). Enhanced parameters are expected to persist through 31 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: Quiet conditions are expected to continue through 29 Oct. On 30 Oct, the CME from 28 Oct is expected to impact Earth. G1 (Minor) to G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm conditions are expected on the 30th, and G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm conditions are on 31 Oct.

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