[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Nov 07 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Nov 07 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels due to an isolated C1 flare at 06/1239 UTC from Region 2894 (S28E50, Cso/beta). Region 2891 (N16W70) decayed to a simple Axx/alpha spot while small spots emerged in the trailing edge of Region 2894. Region 2893 (N17W14, Hsx/alpha) was stable.

A filament eruption occurred at 06/1118 UTC in SDO/AIA 304 imagery centered near N23W10. A very faint CME signature could be observed off the W limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 06/1400 UTC. Subsequent modelling of the event showed no Earth-directed component.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flaring on 07-09 Nov, particularly from Region 2894.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,060 pfu observed at 06/2300 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 07-08 Nov. The greater than 10 proton flux is expected to remain near background levels on 07-09 Nov.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to recover from CME activity over the period. Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 550 km/s to near 470 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-5 nT while the Bz component was between +/-4 nT. Phi angle was mostly negative.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to trend towards background levels over 07 Nov. Late on 07 and into 08 Nov, weak influence from a positive polarity CH HSS may occur. Nominal conditions are expected over 09 Nov.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels as CME effects continued to diminish.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach unsettled levels by late on 07 Nov to early on 08 Nov as weak influence from a positive polarity CH HSS may influence the solar wind. A return to quiet conditions is expected on 09 Nov.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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