[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2021 Dec 27 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2021 Dec 27 0408 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 - 26 December 2021

Solar activity was at low levels with C-class flare activity on 23-26 Dec. Moderate levels of solar activity were observed on 20-22 Dec due to M-class flare activity. Region 2908 (S20, L=300, class/area=Dai/100 on 22 Dec) produced M1/1n flares at 20/1136 and 22/0706 UTC while Region 2916 (S18, L=194, class/area=Ekc/450 on 25 Dec) produced two M1 flares at 21/0750 and 21/1144 UTC. The remainder of the period was dominated by frequent C-class flare activity primarily from Regions 2908 and 2916, in addition to Regions 2907 (S22, L=313, class/area=Eki/300 on 23 Dec) 2918 (N19, L=211, class/area=Dki/280 on 25 Dec).

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was normal to moderate on 20-22 Dec and at high levels on 23-26 Dec following CH HSS-associated enhancements.

Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels on 20-21 Dec and unsettled levels on 22 Dec due to the influences of a negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 25 Dec due to what appeared to be the possible arrival of a CME from 21 Dec. Quiet field conditions and a nominal solar wind regime dominated the remainer of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 December - 22 January 2022

Solar activity is expected to be mostly at very low to low levels, with isolated M-class flare activity possible, throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 27 Dec-03 Jan and 17-22 Jan. Normal to moderate levels are expected prevail throughout the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 25-29 Dec and 16 Jan due to CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled or generally quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the period.

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