[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2022 Jan 24 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2022 Jan 24 0326 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 - 23 January 2022

Solar activity ranged from very low to high levels during the period. Low levels were observed on 17 Jan with 3 C-class flares observed from Region 2930 (N21, L=324, class/area Dao/230 on 18 Jan). Activity increased to moderate levels (R1-Minor) radio blackouts as Region 2929 (N08, L=321, class/area Dki/310 on 16 Jan) produced am M1/Sf at 18/1744 UTC. Associated with this event were Type II (143 km/s shock velocity), Type IV and 10cm (150 sfu) radio events. This event generated a non Earth-directed CME. C-class activity was also observed from Region 2930. Low levels returned on 19 Jan with a C1 flare observed from Region 2929.

High levels were observed on 20 Jan as Region 2929 produced an M5/!f (R2-Moderate) radio blackouts at 20/0601 UTC. Associated with this event were Type II ( 329 km/s shock velocity), Type IV and 10cm (350 sfu) radio events, along with a Caselli U radio signature. This event also generated a non Earth-directed CME. Very low levels returned on 21-23 Jan. Of note was a long duration B4 event at 21/1016 UTC with an associated CME. During this timeframe, a disappearing filament was observed lifting off near Region 2934 (S24, L=172, class/area Hsx/140 on 21 Jan). This CME was analyzed to have a potential glancing blow at Earth late on 24 Jan. On 22 Jan, another CME was observed at 22/1036 UTC associated with a disappearing filament located near N28E18. This CME was also analyzed to have a potential glancing blow at Earth on 26 January.

An S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm 10 Mev proton event was observed at geosynchronous orbit on 20 Jan associated with the M5 flare mentioned earlier in this report. The event reached a maximum flux of 22.7 pfu at 20/1015 UTC. A 100 MeV proton event was also observed at geosynchronous orbit on 20 Jan associated with the M5 flare. This event reached a maximum flux of 1.1 pfu at 20/0850 UTC. No other proton events were observed during the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels through the entire period with a maximum flux of 6,130 pfu observed at 23/1620 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels on 17-20 Jan due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. Active to G1 (minor) storm levels were also observed on 18 Jan and active to G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels were observed on 19 Jan due to possible embedded transients from CME activity on 14 and 15 Jan. Quiet to unsettled activity was observed on 21-23 Jan due to a sustained negative Bz component.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 24 January - 19 February 2022

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels on 24 Jan - 02 Feb and 17-19 Feb. Very low to low levels, with a slight chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackouts, is ecpected on 03-16 Feb due to the return of old active region 2929 (N08, L=321).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 24-26 Jan and 12-19 Feb due to recurrent CH HSS influence. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 27-31 Jan and 01-11 Feb.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levles on 24-27 Jan due to positive polarity CH HSS coupled with possible transient passage from the 21 and 22 Jan CME activity. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 04-05 and 10-12 Feb due to negative polarity CH HSS activity.

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