[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2022 Mar 21 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2022 Mar 21 0502 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 - 20 March 2022

Solar activity reached moderate levels on 14-15 Mar due to an M2 flare at 14/0840 UTC, an M1/Sn at 15/1239 UTC and an M1/Sf at 15/2246 UTC all originating from Region 2965 (N23, L=266, class/area Fki/620 on 12 Mar). Low levels were observed on 17 and 19-20 Mar while very low levels occurred on 16 and 18 Mar. Two CMEs were of note with possible Earth-directed components. The first was an approximate 10 degree filament eruption beginning at 16/1228 UTC centered near N26E23 which produced a CME first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 16/1347 UTC off the NE limb. Modelling of the event showed a potential glancing blow late on 19 Mar to early on 20 Mar. The second CME of interest was due to a C4/1f flare at 20/0745 UTC from plage region 2971 (N17, L=180, class/area Bxo/020 on 17 Mar). The eruption produced an EIT darkening in AIA 193 imagery as well as a Type II radio sweep (188 km/s). An associated CME could be seen off the NE limb of LASCO C2 imagery at 20/1100 UTC. Initial modelling shows the potential for a glancing blow late on 23 Mar to early on 24 Mar.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity began under the waning influence of the 10 Mar CME. Total field was initially at 24 nT, but began to diminish after 14/0740 UTC. Solar wind speed declined from approximately 455 km/s to near 425 km/s. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to G2 (Moderate) storm levels on 14 Mar and quiet to unsettled conditions on 15 Mar. By midday on 16 Mar, solar wind parameters had diminished to nominal levels and maintained those levels through late on 19 Mar. Quiet conditions were observed on 16-19 Mar. By late on 19 Mar, total field slowly increased to 10 nT along with density to near 20 p/cm^3. A solar sector boundary crossing ensued at 20/1617 UTC. The enhancement as well as the sinusoidal like rotation of the Bz component during this time could be attributable to the glancing blow from the 16 Mar CME. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 20 Mar.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 March - 16 April 2022

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels for the forecast period. There is a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares on 23 Mar-05 Apr as old Region 2957 (S16, L=038) returns to the visible disk.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach moderate to high levels on 21-22 Mar and 02-06 Apr due to recurrent CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled to active levels on 21-22 Mar due to potential negative polarity CH HSS influence. Unsettled to active levels are also expected on 23-25 Mar due to a possible glancing blow from the 20 Mar CME combined with a positive polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active levels are expected once again on 31 Mar - 03 Apr with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 01 Apr due to recurrent negative polarity CH HSS activity.

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