|
Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2022 Apr 04 0517 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 March - 03 April 2022
Solar activity reached high levels at 30/1737 UTC due to an X1 flare, the largest of the period, from Region 2975 (N13, L=088, class/area Dkc/330 on 30 Mar). This event was associated with Type II (estimated speed of 1,424 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, 10 cm radio burst (540 sfu), and a CME that after modeling did not appear to contain an Earth-directed component. Region 2975 was the most active and magnetically complex region on the disk throughout the period. It was responsible for an M4 flare at 28/1129 UTC, with associated Type II radio sweep and a partial halo/asymmetric CME. Region 2975 produced a second M-flare, an M1/Sn at 28/2059 UTC, also with Type II activity and a full halo/asymmetric CME. Subsequesnt analysis and modeling indicated Earth-directed transients from both events with speeds of 667 km/s and 841 km/s respectively. The second and faster CME was forecast to catch up and combine with the first transient from the M4 event. The combined arrival of both events at the magnetosphere was forecasted for early on 31 Mar. Region 2975 was responsible for an M9/1b flare at 31/1835 UTC, with associated Type II and Type IV radio sweeps, 10 cm radio bursts and a CME that was not determined to be Earth-directed. Region 2975 produced four additional M-flares during the period: an M2/2n flare at 29/0111 UTC; an M1 flare at 29/2152 UTC; an M2 flare at 02/0256 UTC; and an M4/1n flare at 02/1744 UTC. Region 2976 (N15, L=068, class/area Eko/550 on 30 Mar) produced an M3/Sn flare at 02/1355 UTC. Region 2974 (S18, L=090, class/area Cso/90 on 23 Mar) produced an M1/Sf flare at 29/0158 UTC.
Four proton events were observed during the period. The first event was a 10 MeV integral flux event that exceeded 10 pfu. It began at 28/1325 UTC, reached a maximum of 18.7 pfu at 28/1450 UTC, and ended at 28/2115 UTC. The second event was a 100 MeV event that exceeded 1 pfu that began at 28/1245 UTC, reached a maximum flux of 1 pfu at 28/1325 UTC, and ended at 28/1455 UTC. The third event was a 10 MeV integral flux event that excedded 10pfu. This event began at 31/0620, reached a maximum flux of 10.6 pfu at 31/0630 UTC, and ended at 31/0720 UTC. The last proton event was a 10 MeV integral flux event that exceeded 10 pfu. This event began at 02/1430 UTC, reached a maximum flux of 32 pfu at 02/1600 UTC, and ended at 03/0005 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 03 Apr with a peak flux of 2,600 pfu at 03/1505 UTC. This activity was in response to elevated solar wind speeds from the 28 Mar CMEs. Electron flux reached moderate levels on 28 Mar - 02 Apr.
Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels late on 30 Mar and G1 (Minor) storm levels early on 31 Mar in response to a pair of CMEs that left the solar disk on 28 Mar. Solar wind speed stair-stepped from ~410 km/s to 500 km/s and then later 600+ km/s after arrival. Total field peaked at 23 nT while Bz briefly dropped as low as -12 nT. Active levels were observed on 01-03 Apr with G1 (Minor) storms observed on 02 Apr as these transient features persisted and later combined with a negative-polarity CH HSS. Active levels were observed on 28 Mar due to positive polarity CH HSS influence and quiet conditions prevailed on 29 Mar on the days preceeding the dual CME arrival.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 April - 30 April 2022
Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a chance for X-class flaring on 04 Apr. M-class flaring probability decreases to a slight chance on 05-06 Apr as Region 2975 rotates around the west limb. These probabilities are anticipated on 14-27 Apr with the return of Region 2975. Very low to low activity is expected on Apr 07-13 and 28-30 Apr.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit may increase above the 10 pfu threshold (S1-Minor) on 04 Apr if Region 2975 produces another significant eruption. A return to background levels is anticipated for the remainder of the outlook period.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 04-07 Apr in response to persistent combined CME/CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 04, 11, 23, 29-30 Apr and unsettled levels on 05, 12, 20-21, 24-25 Apr due to recurrent CH HSS effects. Quiet conditions are anticipated for the remainder of the outlook period.
Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/
Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/
If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users:
1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US
2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io
https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather
Spread the word!
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
Links of interest:
+ Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx
Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:
I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.
Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.
You can help!
Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:
https://www.patreon.com/NW7US
The YouTube channel:
https://YouTube.com/NW7US
..
![Weekly Propagation Summary - 2022 Apr 04 16:10 UTC]()
Live data and images: SunSpotWatch.com
|