[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2022 Apr 11 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2022 Apr 11 1312 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 - 10 April 2022

Solar activity was at low levels through the period with numerous C-class flares observed. Rgn 2978 (S19, L=011, class/area Eko/670 on 30 Mar) produced a majority of the C-class activity with the largest event a C4 observed at 10/0241 UTC. Additional C-class activity was observed from Rgns 2967 (N20, L=075, class/area Eho/530 on 26 Mar), 2979 (S22, L=030, class/area Azz/030 on 29 Mar), 2982 (S20, L=334, class/area Bxo/040 on 04 Apr), 2983 (N20, L=328, class/area Hsx/040 on 02 Apr) and 2985 (S20, L=289, class/area Hax/050 on 05 Apr). During the period, numerous filament eruptions were observed on 03, 04 and 07 Apr that impacted Earth on 06-10 Apr. More details below.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 04-07 Apr with a peak flux of 3,920 pfu observed on 04 Apr. Low to moderate levels were observed on 08-10 Apr.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to strong (G3) levels during the period. Unsettled to active levels were observed on 04 Apr due to negative polarity CH HSS effects. This was followed by quiet levels on 05 Apr. Quiet to unsettled levels occured on 06 Apr due to weak effects from the 03 Apr CME. 07 Apr saw quiet to active levels due to combined effects from the 03 and 04 CMEs. 08-09 Apr witnessed quiet to active levels as effects from the 04 Apr CME persisted. On 10 Apr, effects from the 07 CME, combined with negative polarity CH HSS influence, increased geomagnetic levels to Minor to Strong (G1-G3) storm levels. On the 10th, wind speeds were initially in the 450-475 km/s range, became elevated to about 530 km/s near 10/0400 UTC before settling down to about 485 km/s by the end of the day. Density peaked to 36 ppcm at about 10/0215 UTC, total field Bt increased to 19 nT and the Bz component dived south to -15 nT at 10/0513 UTC. The phi angle switched from a positive orientation to a mostly negative sector at 10/0214 UTC.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 April - 07 May 2022

Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 15-28 Apr due to the return of old Rgn 2975 (N13, L=088). Very low to low activity is expected on 11-14 Apr, 29-30 Apr and 01-07 May.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 11-29 Apr and 05-07 May with moderate to high levels on 30 Apr and 01-04 May in response to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled to active levels on 11, 14-15, 20-21, 23-24, 29-30 Apr, 01 and 06-07 May, all due to recurrent CH HSS effects. Quiet conditions are anticipated for the remainder of the outlook period.

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