[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2022 Apr 18 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2022 Apr 18 0229 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 - 17 April 2022

Solar activity reached very high levels during the period. Very low to low levels were observed on 11-14 April. Activity increased to moderate levels on 15 April due to a pair of M1 flares R1 (Minor), at 15/1031 UTC and 1359 UTC respectively, from Region 2993 (N21, L=111, class/area Dho/400 on 17 Apr. Moderate levels were observed on 16 Apr with another M1 flare (R1-Minor) at 16/1456 UTC from Region 2993. Activity increased to very high levels on 17 Apr with an X1 (R3-Strong) flare from Region 2994 (N13, L=106, class/area Eho/350 on 17 Apr) at 17/0334 UTC. Associated with this event was a Type II radio Sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 614 km/s. In addition, a Tenflare of 130 sfu was observed. Region 2993 also contributed two M1 flares (R1-Minor). Region 2992 (S31, L=248, class/area Dao/110 on 17 Apr) produced M-class activity as well on the 17th. The first was an M1/Sf at 17/2002 UTC and an M4/Sf at 17/2234 UTC. Associated with this event was a Type II radio Sweep with a shock velocity of 837 km/s.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was was at high levels on 11-13 Apr and 16-17 Apr with a peak flux of 2,310 pfu oberved at 17/1705 UTC. Normal to moderate levels were observed on 14-15 Apr.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to moderate storm levels (G2-Moderate). Quiet to active levels were observed on 11 April due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. Quiet to active levels were observed on 12-13 April due to influence from the 07 Apr CME. Unsettled to minor to major storm levels were observed on 14-15 Apr. Minor to major (G1-G2, Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels were observed on 14 Apr and minor (G1-Minor) storm levels were observed on 15 Apr, all due to influences from the 11 Apr CME. The highlight period finished with quiet to unsettled levels under effects from a positive polarity CH HSS.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 18 April - 14 May 2022

Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for very high levels (R3, Strong), on 18-30 Apr and 11-14 May due to the flare potential from Regions 2993 and 2994. Very low to low activity is expected from 01-10 May.

A slight chance for proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit is possible on 18-30 Apr and 11-14 May due to the potential from Regions 2993 and 2994.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 18-20, 30 Apr, 01-02, 07-09 and 14 May. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled to active levels on 18-20, 23, 29-30 Apr, 01, 06-08 and 13-14 May, all due to recurrent CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet conditions are anticipated for the remainder of the outlook period.

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