[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2022 Apr 25 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2022 Apr 25 0207 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 18 - 24 April 2022

Solar activity reached high levels during the period. Moderate levels were observed on 18 Apr with M1 flares observed from Regions 2987 (N30, L=262, plage) and 2993 (N22, L111, class/area Fkc/600 on 21 Apr). Region 2992 (S28, L=244, class/area Dao/300 on 18 Apr) contributed an M3 flare at 19/2049 UTC. Activity increased to high levels on 20-21 Apr with an M7 flare at 20/0136 UTC from Region 2992. This region also produced an X2 flare at 20/0357 UTC. Associated with the X2 flare was a Tenflare and Type II sweep. Region 2993 produced an M9 flare at 21/0159 UTC. There was a Tenflare, Type II and Type IV sweeps with this event. Region 2993 also managed an M3 flare with a Type II sweep on 22 Apr. Low levels were observed on 23-24 Apr. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 18-20 Apr. Normal to moderate levels were observed on 21-24 Apr.

Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels on 23 Apr due to influences from a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 18-22 Apr and 24 Apr.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 25 April - 21 May 2022

Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels (R-R2, Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for very high levels (R3, Strong) on 25-30 Apr and 11-21 May due to the flare potential from Regions 2993 and 2994. Very low to low activity is expected on 1-10 May.

A slight chance for proton events exists on 25-30 Apr and 11-21 May due to the potential from Regions 2993 and 2994.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 30 Apr - 1 May, 7-9 May, and 14-17 May due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 29 Apr due the arrival of a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 30 Apr, 7-8 May, 14 May, and 20 May all due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Quiet levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

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