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[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2022 Jun 13 16:

Subject: [Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2022 Jun 13 16:10 UTC
Reply-to: Practical radio-wave propagation and space weather <>
Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2022 16:10:10 +0000
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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2022 Jun 13 0505 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 - 12 June 2022

Solar activity ranged from very low to moderate levels. Very low levels were observed on 06-08 Jun. Low levels were observed on 09 and 11-12 Jun with the majority of the C-class flares from Regions 3029 (S17, L=204, class/area Dao/070 on 09 Jun) and 3030 (N20, L=113, class/area Eao/180 on 11 Jun). Region 3030 was also responsible for the moderate activity on 10 Jun due to an isolated M1/Sf flare at 10/1054 UTC. By 12 Jun, Region 3030 had rotated into view enough to determine it was two separate regions. The trailing spots were reclassified as Region 3032 (N21, L=106 class/area Dai/090 on 12 Jun). Just after the end of the period, an M3.4 flare was observed at 13/0407 UTC along with Type II and IV radio sweeps. The bulk of the flare activity was from Region 3032 with sympathetic flaring noted around the same time from Region 3030. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed, however we are waiting on further coronagraph imagery associated with the recent M3.4 flare to determine if there is an Earth-directed component.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity was at or near background levels on 06-11 Jun with solar wind below 400 km/s and total field ranging from 3-12 nT. By 12 Jun, total field increased to 12-15 nT while the solar wind speed increased to 440-485 km/s as a weak positive polarity CH HSS became geoeffective. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to unsettled levels on 06-07 Jun and 11-12 Jun while quiet conditions were observed on 08-10 Jun.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 June - 09 July 2022

Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a chance for further M-class flares on 13-24 Jun due to potential flare activity from Regions 3030 and 3032.

There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event in the next 24 hours associated with the recent M3 flare.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 17-22 Jun and again on 26 Jun - 02 Jul due CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on 13 Jun, 15-18 Jun, 23-26 Jun, 08-09 Jul with active levels on 13,16 and 24 Jun due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

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Weekly Propagation Summary - 2022 Jun 13 16:10 UTC

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