[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Aug 02 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Aug 02 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with only two sunspot groups present on the visible disk. Region 3070 (N15E50) was assigned early and since decayed to plage. Region 3068 (S15W04, Esi/beta-gamma) underwent some occasions of dissipation and regrowth within the intermediate section and the overall number of spots increased. Additionally, some weak mixed polarity spots developed near the lead penumbral spot, however, magnetic shear remained minimal and only B-class enhancements were observed. No Earth-directed CMEs were noted in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares 02-04 Aug.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 02-03 Aug, with a chance for high levels beginning 03 Aug in response to CH HSS effects. An increase to high levels is more likely on 04 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of probable, negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total IMF strength decreased from 9 nT to settle at 6 nT. The Bz component varied between orientations, but no sustained periods of pronounced southward direction were noted. Solar wind speed ranged mainly from 435-525 km/s, with a peak at 558 km/s at 01/0509 UTC. The phi angle was predominantly negative.

Forecast: The solar wind field is expected to be enhanced and disturbed 02-04 Aug due to continuing negative polarity CH HSS influences.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, with occasional periods of active conditions likely, and a chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels, due to continuing CH HSS effects 02-04 Aug.

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