[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Aug 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Aug 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels with multiple C-class flares. The largest was a C2 at 12/1020 UTC from Region 3077 (S17W43, Cao/beta). New Region 3079 (S10W05, Bxo/beta) was numbered this period and was inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on 12-14 Aug.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, reaching a peak of 14,495 pfu at 11/1350 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 12-14 Aug in association with the elevated wind speeds from the CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of persistent positive polarity CH HSS influence. Total field was elevated and reached a peak of 10 nT. The Bz component fluctuated between +/-6 nT. Solar wind speeds continued to reach ~550-600 km/s. Phi was variable throughout the period.

Forecast: Enhanced solar wind parameters, associated with CH HSS influence, are expected to continue through 12 Aug. By 13 Aug, the enhanced solar wind environment should begin to ease as CH HSS influence begins to weaken, returning to a near background solar wind regime by 14 Aug.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached active levels due to persistent CH HSS influences.

Forecast: Unsettled to active levels are expected, with a chance for an isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming period on 12 Aug as positive polarity CH HSS effects linger. Conditions are then expected to diminish by early 13 Aug, returning to mostly quiet levels by late 13 Aug/early 14 Aug.

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