[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Aug 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Aug 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 3079 (S11W26, Dao/beta) produced the strongest event of the period, a C6 flare at 13/0713 UTC. It also produced the vast majority of C-class X-ray activity over the past 24 hours. Growth was observed throughout the region along with consolidation between its trailer and intermediate spots. Newly numbered Region 3081 (N12E43, Dai/beta) grew new spots and in penumbral area. Region 3076 (N16W10, Dao/beta) developed slightly. The remaining numbered regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) flares on 13-15 Aug.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of 3,310 pfu observed at 12/1615 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 13-15 Aug in association with elevated wind speeds from a geoeffective CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the waning effects of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength was between 4-6 nT. The Bz component was between +4/-4 nT. Solar wind speeds declined from a peak of ~600 km/s early in the period to ~525 km/s by the periods end. Phi was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to wane over 13 Aug. A return to nominal conditions is expected over 14-15 Aug.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels due to persistent CH HSS influences.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 13 Aug as positive polarity CH HSS effects slowly diminish. Conditions are expected to return to mostly quiet levels over 14 Aug and 15 Aug.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

- - - - - - - - - - - - - Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather Spread the word! - - - - - - - - - - - - - Links of interest: + Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News: I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more. Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities. You can help! Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel: https://www.patreon.com/NW7US The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US ..

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation