[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Sep 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Sep 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 3089 (S22W27, Eki/beta-gamma-delta) produced a C2 flare at 31/1939 UTC, the strongest of the period. The region exhibited minor decay among its intermediate spots. Region 3091 (N14W10, Axx/alpha) was simple and quiet. A region of flux in rotated around the SE limb and will be assigned an active region number if it persists. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts 01-03 Sep.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels.

Forecast: No proton events are expected on 01-03 Sep. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate levels on 01-03 Sep.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, suggested influence from a negative polarity CH HSS with a possible embedded transient. Total magnetic field strength was 2-8 nT. The Bz component reached as far south as -8 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from ~500 km/s to ~550 km/s by the periods end. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast: Slightly elevated conditions are likely 01 Sep. Near-background conditions are expected over 02 Sep. Positive polarity CH HSS influence is possible on 03 Sep.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is like to range from quiet to active on 01 Sep. Mostly quiet conditions are likely over 02 Sep. Unsettled conditions are forecast for 03 Sep due to anticipated interaction with a positive polarity CH HSS.

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