[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Sep 30 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Sep 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M1 flare at 30/0401 UTC from an unnumbered region rotating onto the NE limb near N22. The majority of the C-class flare activity was also from this region with contributions from Region 3107 (S24W46, Dai/beta). Slight growth was observed in the trailing spots of Region 3110 (N16W12, Cso/beta-gamma) while Regions 3107 and 3105 (S17W62, Cro/beta) were in decay. Region 3111 (N27E38, Hsx/alpha) was stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over 30 Sep-02 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate over 30 Sep-02 Oct and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were enhanced over the period with solar wind speed ranging from 460-594 km/s. Total field was around 3-6 nT until 30/0436 UTC when a weak IP shock was observed at the DSCVR spacecraft. Total field increased from 6 nT to 12 nT and further increased to a maximum of 15 nT at 30/0645 UTC before leveling off around 11 nT. Solar wind speed increased from 507 km/s to 544 km/s and briefly increased to a maximum of 594 km/s at 30/0556 UTC before calming to near 520 km/s. The Bz component ranged from -8/+6 nT and Phi angle was mostly positive.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are expected to be strongly enhanced under positive polarity CH HSS influences over 30 Sep-02 Oct. A CME from 28 Sep is likely to arrive on 01 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active levels. Increase in activity after 30/0436 UTC likely due to the arrival of a CIR preceding a positive polarity CH HSS. A geomagnetic sudden impulse of 20 nT was recorded at 30/0519 UTC at the Canberra station.

Forecast: Minor (G1) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 30 Sep and 02 Oct, with moderate (G2) storm levels likely on 01 Oct, due to positive polarity CH HSS influences throughout the next three days and possible CME effects on 01 Oct.

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