[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Oct 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Oct 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M2 flare at 30/1622 UTC and an M1 flare at 30/1734 UTC from new Region 3112 (N21E72, Dao/beta-delta). However, an accurate classification of Region 3112 was not possible due to limb proximity. Further C-class flares were produced by Regions 3112, 3111 (N27E24, Cso/beta), and 3107 (S24W60, Cai/beta). Slight to moderate growth was observed in Region 3113 (N16W21, Dao/beta) while Regions 3105 (S17W74, Axx/alpha) and 3107 were in decay. The rest of the spotted groups appeared to be stable. New spots were observed emerging in the SE quadrant and was numbered as Region 3114 (S33E30, Bxo/beta). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the reporting period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with an increased chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong or Greater) on 01-03 Oct, particularly from Region 3112.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 01-02 Oct, with high levels likely on 03 Oct due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Looking at ACE solar wind data alone, solar wind speed decreased over the period from approximately 465 km/s to near 400 km/s. Total field decreased from 9 nT to 7 nT while the Bz component was between +3/-4 nT. Phi angle was positive.

A discontinuity in solar wind parameters at 01/0510 UTC was due to a switch to the ACE satellite as primary. Low densities in DSCVR solar wind data necessitated the switch. ACE measurements appeared in better agreement with SOHO/CELIAS/MTOF.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced beginning late on 01 Oct due to the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS and possible CME influence on 01 Oct. Enhanced solar wind parameters are expected to persist through 03 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach minor to moderate (G1-G2) storm levels late on 01 Oct, and minor (G1) storm levels on 02-03 Oct, due to positive polarity CH HSS influences and possible CME effects on 01 Oct.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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