[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Oct 10 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Oct 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an MM1.0/1f flare at 10/0047 UTC from Region 3112 (N22W34, Eki/beta). Multiple C-class flares were also observed from this region. Over the past 24 hours, Region 3112 exhibited slight decay in the trailing spots and a simplified magnetic structure. C-class activity was also observed from Region 3119 (N27W01, Dsi/beta) which showed overall growth in the region.

A CME off the SE limb, first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 09/2348 UTC, was associated with a filament eruption centered near S24E45. The CME was analyzed and initial model output suggested a miss south of the Sun-Earth line. Further analysis is ongoing.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3 Strong) on 10-12 Oct due primarily to the flare potential of Regions 3112 and 3116.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum of 3,330 pfu observed at 09/1715 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 10-12 Oct due to HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were enhanced under HSS conditions. Solar wind speed generally ranged from about 540-600 km/s with some isolated peaks to near 630 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-6 nT while the Bz component varied between +4/-5 nT. Phi angle remained in a predominantly positive orientation.

Forecast: CH HSS influences are expected to continue on 10 Oct. A return to near nominal levels is expected on 11 Oct. There is a possibility of a grazing from the 07 Oct CME causing a mild enhancement of magnetic field and density on 12 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to mostly active levels due to positive polarity CH HSS activity.

Forecast: Unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are expected on 10 Oct as positive polarity HSS activity continues. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 11 Oct as the HSS slowly diminishes. Unsettled to active levels are possible on 12 Oct due to a grazing from the 07 Oct CME.

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